Executive Summary
Two iconic foods — mappa (the daily artisanal bread) and fangassou (the ubiquitous fried doughnut) — concentrate the bulk of Chad's dependency on imported wheat flour, representing an annual foreign exchange outflow of 90 to 137 million USD. The war in Ukraine (2022) caused a 35–50% rise in global wheat prices, directly passed on to mappa prices in N'Djamena.
This note demonstrates that Chad has real, underexploited agro-climatic potential: alluvial plains of the Chari and Logone rivers, Lake Chad polders, heat-tolerant varieties developed by CIMMYT, and a November-to-March growing window perfectly suited to wheat cultivation. Regional benchmarks from Ethiopia, Sudan and Morocco show that sector transformation is achievable in 7 to 10 years with firm political will.
"By 2031, Chad will cover 60% of its wheat flour needs through domestic production, guaranteeing affordable mappa and fangassou for all Chadians, regardless of global market fluctuations." — National Strategic Vision 2026–2031
1. Domestic Wheat Demand in Chad
1.1 Mappa: the national bread with total dependency
Mappa is an elongated artisanal bread made from imported wheat flour, consumed daily by millions of Chadians. Sold between 25 and 75 FCFA per unit, it is the staple breakfast food in urban areas and is progressively expanding to secondary rural towns.
| Indicator | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Urban consuming population | ~3.5 million people |
| Average consumption | 1 mappa/person/day (100 g of flour) |
| Flour consumed — urban mappa | 350 t/day · 127,000 t/year |
| National estimate (urban + semi-urban) | 150,000 – 180,000 t of flour/year |
| Unit price | 25 to 75 FCFA depending on size |
1.2 Fangassou: the engine of the female informal economy
Fangassou is a wheat flour-based fried doughnut, sold between 25 and 50 FCFA per unit. A quintessential street food consumed at breakfast and as a snack across the country, it is estimated to provide a livelihood for over 80,000 women and young people — making it a key vehicle for women's economic inclusion.
| Indicator | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Active national vendors | 60,000 – 100,000 women |
| Flour consumption per vendor/day | 5 to 15 kg |
| Annual flour volume (fangassou) | 110,000 – 130,000 t/year |
| Unit price | 25 to 50 FCFA |
| Net margin per vendor | 3,000 to 10,000 FCFA/day |
1.3 Consolidated national demand
| Consumption item | Annual volume (t flour) |
|---|---|
| Mappa (artisanal bread) | 150,000 – 180,000 |
| Fangassou (street doughnut) | 110,000 – 130,000 |
| Other domestic uses | 20,000 – 30,000 |
| ESTIMATED NATIONAL TOTAL | 280,000 – 340,000 |
To produce 300,000 t of flour requires approximately 400,000 to 420,000 t of wheat grain (72% extraction rate). The CIF value of imports is estimated at 70–90 billion FCFA/year (107–137 million USD).
2. Chad's Agro-Climatic Potential
2.1 The growing window: November to March
Wheat is a cool-season crop (optimum 15–22°C). In Chad, this window corresponds to the cold dry season (baridi) from November to March — when overnight temperatures fall to 12–18°C in the south and centre. Dry air limits fungal disease. Chari and Logone floods have deposited fertile alluvial silt on the plains.
2.2 High-potential zones
| Zone | Potential area | Current use | Potential yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Chad polders | 80,000 – 120,000 ha | 25% | 3 – 4 t/ha |
| Chari-Baguirmi plains | 150,000 ha | 3% | 2.5 – 3.5 t/ha |
| Mayo-Kebbi (Logone) | 80,000 ha | 4% | 2.5 – 3.5 t/ha |
| Salamat / Moyen-Chari | 60,000 ha | 2% | 2 – 3 t/ha |
| TOTAL | ~410,000 ha | ~10% | — |
Chad's current irrigated area is approximately 30,000–40,000 hectares, less than 1% of the irrigable potential estimated by the FAO at 5.6 million hectares — one of the lowest exploitation rates in sub-Saharan Africa. The Chari (average flow 1,200 m³/s) and Logone (600–800 m³/s) rivers are the base resources for off-season wheat irrigation.
2.3 Varieties suited to Chad's context
| Variety | Origin | Characteristics | Potential yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICARDA HTBL | ICARDA / Syria | Heat tolerance, 100-day cycle | 3.0 – 4.5 t/ha |
| Kakaba | Ethiopia / CIMMYT | Durum wheat, Sahel-adapted | 2.5 – 3.5 t/ha |
| Hubara | Sudan | Arid conditions | 2.0 – 3.0 t/ha |
| Atila | CIMMYT Mexico | High yield, heat | 3.5 – 5.0 t/ha |
| Kauz | CIMMYT | Soft wheat, good milling quality | 3.0 – 4.0 t/ha |
3. The Wheat Value Chain in Chad
The wheat-flour-processed products value chain is currently truncated at its base: it starts at importation, with no local production link. The challenge is to rebuild the upstream chain, creating added value and jobs at every node.
Chad's wheat value chain. Milling is the most critical node: the country has only one industrial mill (200 t/day), covering less than 30% of national needs.
4. Regional Benchmarks
4.1 Ethiopia: the wheat revolution in a hot tropical zone
Ethiopia transformed its wheat sector in under 12 years through four levers: CIMMYT heat-tolerant seeds subsidised at 50%, deployment of 70,000 agricultural extension agents, complementary irrigation by solar pumps, and a guaranteed floor price for producers (USD 120/t). Result: from 3.5 million to 10.2 million tonnes between 2012 and 2023, and 500,000 t exported in 2023.
| Indicator | Ethiopia 2012 | Ethiopia 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat area | 1.6 M ha | 2.8 M ha | +75% |
| Production | 3.5 M t | 10.2 M t | +191% |
| Average yield | 2.1 t/ha | 3.6 t/ha | +71% |
| Share imported | ~40% | <5% | –87% |
4.2 Sudan: Sahelian recession wheat
Sudan has practised irrigated wheat since the 1960s (Gezira project, 882,000 ha). In regions close to Chad (Darfur, Kordofan), recession wheat is grown after floodwaters recede, without artificial irrigation, yielding 1.0–1.5 t/ha at very low cost. This model is directly transferable to the Chari and Logone plains as a 2026–2027 pilot phase.
5. Constraints and Risks
| Constraint | Treatment | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Climate change (heat, drought) | CIMMYT varieties + efficient irrigation | 🔴 Critical |
| Competition from subsidised imported wheat | Tariff protection + input subsidies | 🔴 Critical |
| Agricultural financing deficit (<3% of credit) | National fund + campaign credit | 🔴 Critical |
| Insufficient irrigation infrastructure | Donor investments + maintenance | 🟠 Major |
| Insecurity in target zones (Lake, Salamat) | Secured zoning + protected perimeters | 🟠 Major |
| Deficit in farmers' technical skills | Training + 1,000 extension agents | 🟡 Moderate |
6. Strategic Recommendations and 2026–2031 Roadmap
6.1 Policy and institutional recommendations
- Establish a National Cereals Office (ONCéréales-Chad) — on the model of Morocco's ONICL: set reference prices for wheat and flour, manage a national strategic stock (3-month objective = 75,000 t), regulate imports. Estimated budget: 2 to 3 billion FCFA/year. Timeline: 12 to 18 months.
- Adopt a Flour Sovereignty Law — classify wheat as a national strategic crop. Exempt seeds, fertilizers and irrigation equipment from VAT. Introduce protective tariffs of 25–35% on imported flour. Impose local supply quotas on mills: 10% in 2027, 30% in 2029, 60% in 2031.
- Launch a Presidential "Chadian Wheat" Programme — a strong political signal to investors and donors. National campaign promoting mappa and fangassou made from Chadian flour. National Best Wheat Producer Award. Introduction of wheat in agricultural high school curricula.
6.2 The 2026–2031 Roadmap
H2
Foundation — Institutional framework established
ONCéréales · Flour Sovereignty Law · Presidential programme · CIMMYT agreements · 5,000 ha pilot campaign (recession, November 2026)
Launch — 25,000 ha · 40,000 t produced
8,000–10,000 t pilot harvest · Baguirmi + North Lake poles begin · Seed farms · Campaign credit fund · 300 agents trained
Scale-up — 50,000 ha · 15% self-sufficiency
Lake Mill (150 t/day) · Chari-South expansion · "Chadian Flour" label · Mappa Bakers' Federation
Consolidation — 100,000 ha · 35% self-sufficiency
South + Logone mills · Salamat pole · 50,000 t strategic silo · 30% local mill quota
Target — 60% self-sufficiency · 500,000 jobs
200,000 ha cultivated · 700 t/day milling capacity · 60–80 M USD saved/year · Exports to Niger/CAR/Cameroon
6.3 Financing mobilisation — 2026–2031 plan
The programme requires an estimated total investment of 600–890 million USD over 5 years, mobilisable from multilateral donors active in Chad.
7. Conclusion
Mappa is not just bread. It is the daily barometer of Chadian purchasing power, the first food consumed every morning in millions of households, from N'Djamena to Moundou, from Abéché to Sarh. And fangassou is not just a doughnut — it is the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Chadian women, the informal economy that feeds families when everything else falters.
That these two emblematic foods depend 100% on imported flour is an unacceptable vulnerability for a country that has the land, water, sunshine and workforce needed to grow its own wheat. The transformation window exists. Neighbouring countries have proven it. Technologies are available. Finance is mobilisable.
Tomorrow's mappa can and must be made from Chadian flour.
- FAO: AQUASTAT — Irrigation Data for Sub-Saharan Africa, fao.org, 2025.
- CIMMYT: Heat-tolerant wheat varieties for Sub-Saharan Africa, cimmyt.org, 2024.
- World Bank: Chad — Agricultural Resilience and Competitiveness Project (PARCA), worldbank.org, 2025.
- IFAD: Chad Country Strategy 2022–2027, ifad.org, 2022.
- Ministry of Agriculture of Chad: National Agricultural Statistics, N'Djamena, 2025.
- MEDASH SARL: Field estimates — informal markets N'Djamena, Moundou, Sarh, June 2026.
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